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Multidecadal trend analysis of in situ aerosol radiative properties around the world

机译:世界原位气溶胶辐射特性的多态趋势分析

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In order to assess the evolution of aerosol parameters affecting climate change, a long-term trend analysis of aerosol optical properties was performed on time series from 52 stations situated across five continents. The time series of measured scattering, backscattering and absorption coefficients as well as the derived single scattering albedo, backscattering fraction, scattering and absorption ?ngstr?m exponents covered at least 10?years and up to 40?years for some stations. The non-parametric seasonal Mann–Kendall (MK) statistical test associated with several pre-whitening methods and with Sen's slope was used as the main trend analysis method. Comparisons with general least mean square associated with autoregressive bootstrap (GLS/ARB) and with standard least mean square analysis (LMS) enabled confirmation of the detected MK statistically significant trends and the assessment of advantages and limitations of each method. Currently, scattering and backscattering coefficient trends are mostly decreasing in Europe and North America and are not statistically significant in Asia, while polar stations exhibit a mix of increasing and decreasing trends. A few increasing trends are also found at some stations in North America and Australia. Absorption coefficient time series also exhibit primarily decreasing trends. For single scattering albedo, 52% of the sites exhibit statistically significant positive trends, mostly in Asia, eastern/northern Europe and the Arctic, 22% of sites exhibit statistically significant negative trends, mostly in central Europe and central North America, while the remaining 26% of sites have trends which are not statistically significant. In addition to evaluating trends for the overall time series, the evolution of the trends in sequential 10-year segments was also analyzed. For scattering and backscattering, statistically significant increasing 10-year trends are primarily found for earlier periods (10-year trends ending in 2010–2015) for polar stations and Mauna Loa. For most of the stations, the present-day statistically significant decreasing 10-year trends of the single scattering albedo were preceded by not statistically significant and statistically significant increasing 10-year trends. The effect of air pollution abatement policies in continental North America is very obvious in the 10-year trends of the scattering coefficient – there is a shift to statistically significant negative trends in 2009–2012 for all stations in the eastern and central USA. This long-term trend analysis of aerosol radiative properties with a broad spatial coverage provides insight into potential aerosol effects on climate changes.
机译:为了评估影响气候变化的气溶胶参数的演变,从52位位于五大洲的52站进行时间序列进行气溶胶光学性能的长期趋势分析。测量散射,反向散射和吸收系数的时间序列以及衍生的单散射反玻璃,反向散射分数,散射和吸收?NGSTRαM指数涵盖了至少10个?某些站点和最多40岁。使用与多种预美化方法和森坡相关的非参数季节性Mann-Kendall(MK)统计测试用作主要趋势分析方法。与自回归引导(GLS / ARB)相关的一般最小均值的比较,并且具有标准的最小均方分析(LMS),使得检测到的MK统计学显着的趋势和评估每种方法的优缺点。目前,散射和反向散射系数趋势大多在欧洲和北美减少,在亚洲并不统计学意义,而极地站呈现出增加和降低趋势的混合。在北美和澳大利亚的某些站点也发现了一些增加的趋势。吸收系数时间序列也显示出主要降低趋势。对于单次散射反玻璃,52%的地点展示了统计上显着的积极趋势,主要是在亚洲,东欧/北欧和北极,22%的网站展示统计上显着的负面趋势,主要是在中欧和北美中部,而剩余的26%的网站有趋势,没有统计学意义。除了评估整个时间序列的趋势外,还分析了序贯10年段趋势的演变。对于散射和反向散射,主要显着增加10年趋势主要针对早期的时间(2010 - 2015年趋势为10年),为极地站和Mauna LOA。对于大多数车站来说,目前的统计学上显着降低了单一散射Albedo的10年趋势,前面是在统计上显着和统计上显着的10年趋势。在散射系数的10年趋势中,北美的空气污染减排政策的影响非常明显 - 2009 - 2012年美国东部和中部地区的所有电台都会转向统计上显着的负面趋势。这种具有宽空间覆盖率的气溶胶辐射性能的这种长期趋势分析为潜在的气溶胶对气候变化的影响提供了深入的洞察力。
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