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Global and regional radiative forcing from 20?% reductions in BC, OC andSO4 – an HTAP2 multi-model study

机译:全球和区域辐射强制BC,OC ANDSO4的20?%减少 - HTAP2多模型研究

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In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20?% reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4) from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8?mW?m?2?Tg?1 for BC, between ?2.4 and ?17.9?mW?m?2?Tg?1 for OA and between ?3.6 and ?10.3?W?m?2?Tg?1 for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20?% emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25?% when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37?% since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.
机译:在空气污染阶段2(HTAP2)运动的半球运输中,一系列全球大气一般循环和化学输送模型进行了协调的扰动实验,在许多源区中,在源区中减少了20μl%的扰动试验,或者在源区中减少了气溶胶或气溶胶前体。在这里,我们将导致的大气负荷和垂直解决的黑碳(BC),有机气溶胶(OA)和硫酸盐(SO 4)的垂直解决的曲线进行比较,包括气溶胶处理的10种型号。我们使用一组时间,水平和垂直解决的气溶胶强制效率(AFE)概况(AFE)来估计六个主要源区对全球辐射强制(RF)有关的六个主要源区的影响,从而产生效果。 51.9和210.8?mw?m?2?2?tg?1在bc之间,在?2.4和?17.9?mw?m?2?tg?1为OA和之间的?3.6和?10.3?m?2?tg?为SO4。在大多数情况下,局部影响占主导地位,但结果表明,南亚和东亚的减轻对所有调查的受体地区的辐射预算有很大的影响,特别是BC。在俄罗斯和中东,超过80%的迫使BC和OA是由于区域额外排放减少。同样,对于北美,东亚的BC排放控制比国内减轻更重要,这与以前的调查结果一致。将完全解决的RF计算基于垂直平均的AFE配置文件对RF估计进行比较允许我们量化垂直分辨率对RF估计的重要性。我们发现当地在源区中,减少20?%的排放减少加强了当包括垂直尺寸时与SO4的辐射强制增强,因为SO4的AFE在表面附近最强。相反,由于BC AFE靠近地面,因此来自BC的局部RF削弱了37?%。另一方面,BC直接效应强迫归属于洲际运输的分数在综合方面的核算时提高三分之一,因为远程运输主要导致高海拔地区的气溶胶变化,其中BC AFE是强大的。虽然表面温度响应可能随气溶胶的高度而变化,但本研究的分析延长至温度或降水变化的估计。
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