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Sensitivity tests for an ensemble Kalman filter for aerosol assimilation

机译:用于气溶胶同化的集合卡尔曼滤波器的灵敏度试验

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We present sensitivity tests for a global aerosol assimilation system utilizing AERONET observations of AOT (aerosol optical thickness) and AAE (aerosol ?ngstr?m exponent). The assimilation system employs an ensemble Kalman filter which requires tuning of three numerical parameters: ensemble size nens, local patch size npatch and inflation factor . In addition, experiments are performed to test the impact of various implementations of the system. For instance, we use a different prescription of the emission ensemble or a different combination of observations. The various experiments are compared against one-another and against independent AERONET and MODIS/Aqua observations. The assimilation leads to significant improvements in modelled AOT and AAE fields. Moreover remaining errors are mostly random while they are mostly systematic for an experiment without assimilation. In addition, these results do not depend much on our parameter or design choices. It appears that the value of the local patch size has by far the biggest impact on the assimilation, which has sufficiently converged for an ensemble size of nens=20. Assimilating AOT and AAE is clearly preferential to assimilating AOT at two different wavelengths. In contrast, initial conditions or a description of aerosol beyond two modes (coarse and fine) have only little effect. We also discuss the use of the ensemble spread as an error estimate of the analysed AOT and AAE fields. We show that a very common prescription of the emission ensemble (independent random modification in each grid cell) can have trouble generating sufficient spread in the forecast ensemble.
机译:我们呈现利用AOT(气溶胶光学厚度)和AAE(气溶胶?NGSTRαM指数)的天线观测的全球气溶胶同化系统的敏感性测试。 Assmilation系统采用合奏卡尔曼滤波器,该滤波器需要调整三个数值参数:集合尺寸NENS,本地补丁大小NPatch和充气因子。此外,进行实验以测试系统的各种实施的影响。例如,我们使用不同的发射组合或不同的观察组合的优点。将各种实验与另一个实验进行比较,并反对独立的AeroNet和Modis / Aqua观察结果。同化导致模拟AOT和AAE领域的显着改进。此外,剩余的错误大多是随机的,而它们大多是系统的,在没有同化的情况下为实验提供了系统。此外,这些结果不依赖于我们的参数或设计选择。似乎本地补丁大小的价值迄今为止对同化的最大影响,这足以充分融合NENS = 20的集合大小。同化AOT和AAE显然优先于在两个不同波长下吸收AOT。相反,初始条件或气溶胶的描述超过两种模式(粗细胞和细)的效果。我们还讨论了整体传播作为分析的AOT和AAE领域的误差估计。我们表明,发射合奏的非常常见的处方(每个网格单元中的独立随机修改)可能在预测集合中产生足够的扩散。

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