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Global and regional emissions estimates of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2) from in situ and air archive observations

机译:来自原位和空气归档观测的1,1-二氟乙烷(HFC-152A,CH3CHF2)的全球和区域排放估计

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High frequency, in situ observations from 11 globally distributed sites for the period 1994–2014 and archived air measurements dating from 1978 onward have been used to determine the global growth rate of 1,1-difluoroethane (HFC-152a, CH3CHF2). These observations have been combined with a range of atmospheric transport models to derive global emission estimates in a top-down approach. HFC-152a is a greenhouse gas with a short atmospheric lifetime of about 1.5 years. Since it does not contain chlorine or bromine, HFC-152a makes no direct contribution to the destruction of stratospheric ozone and is therefore used as a substitute for the ozone depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). The concentration of HFC-152a has grown substantially since the first direct measurements in 1994, reaching a maximum annual global growth rate of 0.84?±?0.05?ppt?yr?1 in 2006, implying a substantial increase in emissions up to 2006. However, since 2007, the annual rate of growth has slowed to 0.38?±?0.04?ppt?yr?1 in 2010 with a further decline to an annual average rate of growth in 2013–2014 of ?0.06?±?0.05?ppt?yr?1. The annual average Northern Hemisphere (NH) mole fraction in 1994 was 1.2?ppt rising to an annual average mole fraction of 10.1?ppt in 2014. Average annual mole fractions in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in 1998 and 2014 were 0.84 and 4.5?ppt, respectively. We estimate global emissions of HFC-152a have risen from 7.3?±?5.6?Gg?yr?1 in 1994 to a maximum of 54.4?±?17.1?Gg?yr?1 in 2011, declining to 52.5?±?20.1?Gg?yr?1 in 2014 or 7.2?±?2.8?Tg-CO2?eq?yr?1. Analysis of mole fraction enhancements above regional background atmospheric levels suggests substantial emissions from North America, Asia, and Europe. Global HFC emissions (so called “bottom up” emissions) reported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are based on cumulative national emission data reported to the UNFCCC, which in turn are based on national consumption data. There appears to be a significant underestimate (???20?Gg) of “bottom-up” reported emissions of HFC-152a, possibly arising from largely underestimated USA emissions and undeclared Asian emissions.
机译:高频,从1994 - 2014年期间的11个全球分布站点的原位观察和从1978年开始的存档空气测量已经用于确定1,1-二氟乙烷(HFC-152A,CH3CHF2)的全局生长速率。这些观察结果与一系列大气传输模型相结合,以通过自上而下的方法导出全球排放估计。 HFC-152A是一个温室气体,大气寿命短约1.5岁。由于它不含氯或溴,HFC-152a对破坏平流层臭氧的破坏没有直接贡献,因此用作臭氧耗尽氯氟烃(CFC)和氢氯氟烃(HCFC)的替代品。由于1994年的第一次直接测量,HFC-152a的浓度基本上增加了0.84的最高直接测量值0.84?0.05?PPT?1在2006年,暗示了2006年的排放量大幅增加。然而,自2007年以来,年度增长率已经放缓至0.38?±0.04?PPT?YR?1在2010年的每年平均增长率进一步下降?0.06?0.05?PPT? Yr?1。 1994年的每年平均北半球(NH)鼹鼠(NH)鼹鼠分数为1.2?PPT上升到2014年的10.1的年平均摩尔分数10.1的PPT。1998年和2014年南半球(SH)的平均摩尔分数为0.84和4.5? PPT分别。我们估计HFC-152A的全球排放量从7.3?±5.6?5.6?YR?1在1994年的最大值为54.4?±17.1?GG?YR?1在2011年,下降到52.5?±20.1? GG?YR?1在2014年或7.2?±2.2?2.8?TG-CO2?等等?YR?1。区域背景大气水平高于摩尔分数增强的分析表明北美,亚洲和欧洲的大量排放。联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC)报告的全球氟氯烃排放量(所谓的“自下而上的”排放量)基于向UNFCCC报告的累积国家排放数据,这反过来依据国家消费数据。似乎有一个很大的低估(??? 20?GG)“自下而上”报告的HFC-152a排放,可能来自大部分低估的美国排放和未宣告的亚洲排放。
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