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Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone

机译:使用北美和欧洲空气质量网络来评估地表臭氧的全球化学气候建模

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We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.
机译:我们测试目前的全球化学气候模型,以其模拟观察到的现今表面臭氧的能力。在北美和欧洲4217站评估模型,这些臭氧在北美和欧洲的平均超过1°×1°电池单元,允许相应的模型测量比较。在一天中的所有时间和所有地区,模型通常均匀偏见。大多数模型都模拟了区域夏季昼夜昼夜昼夜周期的形状,正确地匹配了每小时的时间(〜15:00当地时间(LT))和每月(6月中旬)峰表面臭氧丰度。这些循环的幅度不太成功匹配。观察到的夏季昼夜范围(〜25ppb)在所有地区低估约7ppb,除了在最污染的地区之外,观察到的季节性范围(〜21ppb)被大约5ppb低估,其中大约5 PPB。该模型通常与观察到的夏季臭氧增强的模式匹配,但它们在大多数区域中高估其大小。大多数模型捕获了极端剧集大小的观察到的分布,正确显示大约80%的个体极端事件发生在大规模的多日集中,超过100个网格细胞。该模型还匹配剧集大小与发作强度的量度之间观察到的线性关系,其显示臭氧丰富的增加对于更大尺寸的发作,可以增加6 ppb。我们得出结论,这里评估的模型的技能在未来表面臭氧的投影中提供了信心。
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