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Trends in Extreme Wet Events during Summer Monsoon Season over India

机译:印度夏季季风季节季风季节潮流事件的趋势

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India is a predominantly agrarian country with most of the agriculture in India being rainfed. Summer monsoon means life-giving rains for the entire Indian subcontinent. In India, the success or failure of the harvest and water scarcity in any year is always considered with the greatest concern. Extreme wet and dry events play a vital role in the intra-seasonal variability of monsoon rainfall. Particularly, in recent times, the occurrences of wet spells over India have led to widespread floods in the country. With changing climatic conditions, the occurrence and prediction of these extreme events have become a major stabilizing factor for the millions inhabiting the country. In this study, using 117 years (1901-2017) of high resolution daily gridded rainfall data, trends in extreme high rainfall events over six regions of India have been examined. The temporal change in extreme rainfall events during the time period 1901-1950 and 1951-2017 in summer monsoon months (June, July, August and September) has also been examined, in order to understand the increasing effect of anthropogenic factors after 1950. Using standardized scores (z-scores), each grid cell is analyzed to identify the number of extreme wet spells experienced during the study period. The analysis reveals that the number of extreme wet events showed an increasing trend in the month of June, as against a decreasing trend in July, after 1950, in most of the regions. In the recent period, the number of wet extreme events also show a decreasing trend in the northeastern region, which is considered as one of the rainiest zones of the world. As the present study tries to evaluate the changing trend of extreme wet events, it will help in formulation of hazard management strategies and policies by government planners.
机译:印度是一个主要的农业国家,印度大多数农业都雨水。夏季季风意味着整个印度次大陆的终身降雨。在印度,任何一年的收获和水资源稀缺的成功或失败总是被认为是最重要的。极端潮湿和干燥事件在季风降雨的季节性变异性中起着至关重要的作用。特别是,近来,印度湿法的发生导致了该国广泛的洪水。随着气候条件的变化,这些极端事件的发生和预测已成为居住在该国的数百万的主要稳定因素。在这项研究中,使用117岁(1901-2017)的高分辨率每日网格降雨数据,研究了在印度六个地区的极端高降雨事件中的趋势。在1901年至1950年和1951-2017期间,夏季季风月(六月,八月和九月)的时间季度变化也被研究,以了解1950年后人为因素的日益效果。使用分析标准化分数(Z分数),分析每个网格细胞以识别研究期间经历的极端湿法的数量。该分析表明,六月的月份极端潮湿事件的数量表现出越来越大的趋势,这是在大部分地区之后的7月下降的趋势。在近期,潮湿极端事件的数量也表现出东北地区的趋势下降,被认为是世界上最荒凉的地区之一。随着本研究试图评估极端潮湿事件的变化趋势,它将有助于通过政府规划者制定危险管理战略和政策。

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