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ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF MAIN EXTREME CLIMATE INDICES IN SICHUAN PROVINCE OF CHINA FROM 1968 TO 2017

机译:1968年至2017年中国四川省主要极端气候指标的时空变化特征分析

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With an increasing trend in global warming, extreme weather and a variety of related climate events frequently occur in the Southwestern China. In this research, we analyzed daily maximum and minimum temperatures, and daily precipitation data of 39 meteorological stations in the Sichuan Province between the years of 1968 and 2017. Nineteen different indices representing extreme climate change were selected, and linear regression analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test, sliding T test, wavelet analysis and R/S analysis were applied. According to the results, we concluded that: (1) most extreme cold indices showed a decreasing trend, while the extreme warm indices displayed an increasing trend. There was no significant interannual variation for extreme precipitation indices. (2) Most extreme temperature indices presented no significant mutation years, and the significant periods were mainly 2-6 years long. The mutation years of heavy and very heavy precipitation events mainly appeared in the 1980 and the early 21 st century, and the significant periods of most extreme precipitation indices were 2-7 years long. (3) As shown by the Hurst exponent analysis and interannual variation trends, it is very likely that the extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events in the Sichuan Province will increase in the future.
机译:随着全球变暖的趋势越来越大,极端天气和各种相关的气候事件经常发生在中国西南部。在这项研究中,我们在1968年和2017年之间分析了每日最高和最低温度,以及四川省三年之间的39家气象站的日常降水数据。选择了代表极端气候变化的19个不同指标,线性回归分析,Mann-Kendall施加突变试验,滑动T试验,小波分析和R / S分析。根据结果​​,我们得出的结论是:(1)大多数极端冷指数表明趋势下降,而极端的温暖指数呈现出越来越趋势。极端降水指数没有重大的续际变化。 (2)大多数极端温度指数没有显着的突变年份,重要的时间主要是2-6岁。繁重和非常重的降水事件的突变年份主要出现在1980年和21世纪初,最极端降水指数的重要时期为2 - 7年。 (3)如肿瘤指数分析和年间变异趋势所展示,四川省的极端温度和极端降水事件可能会增加未来。

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