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Objective and subjective prior distributions for the Gompertz distribution

机译:Gompertz分布的客观与主观现有分布

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This paper takes into account the estimation for the unknown parameters of the Gompertz distribution from the frequentist and Bayesian view points by using both objective and subjective prior distributions. We first derive non-informative priors using formal rules, such as Jefreys prior and maximal data information prior (MDIP), based on Fisher information and entropy, respectively. We also propose a prior distribution that incorporate the expert’s knowledge about the issue under study. In this regard, we assume two independent gamma distributions for the parameters of the Gompertz distribution and it is employed for an elicitation process based on the predictive prior distribution by using Laplace approximation for integrals. We suppose that an expert can summarize his/her knowledge about the reliability of an item through statements of percentiles. We also present a set of priors proposed by Singpurwala assuming a truncated normal prior distribution for the median of distribution and a gamma prior for the scale parameter. Next, we investigate the effects of these priors in the posterior estimates of the parameters of the Gompertz distribution. The Bayes estimates are computed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. An extensive numerical simulation is carried out to evaluate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimates and Bayes estimates based on bias, mean-squared error and coverage probabilities. Finally, a real data set have been analyzed for illustrative purposes.
机译:本文考虑了通过使用目标和主观先前分布的频繁光谱和贝叶斯观点的Gompertz分布未知参数的估计。我们首先使用正式规则来使用正式规则,例如jefreys先前和最大数据信息(mdip),分别基于fisher信息和熵。我们还提出了一个先前的分销,该分销纳入了专家对研究中的问题的了解。在这方面,我们假设用于Gompertz分布的参数的两个独立的伽马分布,并且通过使用LAPLACE近似用于积分基于预测的先前分布,它用于诱导过程。我们假设专家可以通过百分比的陈述总结其关于项目的可靠性的知识。我们还展示了Singpurwala提出的一组前沿,假设分布中位数和伽马参数之前的伽马中位数截断正常分布。接下来,我们调查这些前沿在Gompertz分布参数的后估计中的影响。贝叶斯估计使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)算法计算。执行广泛的数值模拟以评估基于偏差,平均平衡误差和覆盖概率的最大似然估计和贝叶斯估计的性能。最后,已经分析了真实数据集以用于说明目的。

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