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Modeling the Cost-effectiveness of Esophageal Cancer Screening in China

机译:建模中国食管癌筛查成本效益

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This study aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of one-time standard endoscopic screening with Lugol’s iodine staining for esophageal cancer (EC) in China. A Markov decision analysis model with eleven states was built. Individuals aged 40 to 69?years were classified into six age groups in five-year intervals. Three different strategies were adopted for each cohort: (1) no screening; (2) one-time endoscopic screening with Lugol’s iodine staining with an annual follow-up for low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN); and (3) one-time endoscopic screening with Lugol’s iodine staining without follow-up. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) indicated the effectiveness of the model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used as the evaluation indicator. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the model. One-time screening with follow-up was the undominated strategy for individuals aged 40–44 and 45–49?years, which saved USD 10,942.57 and USD 6611.73 per QALY gained compared to nonscreening strategy. For those aged 50–69?years, the nonscreening scenarios were undominated. One-time screening without follow-up was the extended dominated strategy. Compared to screening strategies without follow-up, all the screening strategies with follow-up were more cost-effective, with the ICER increasing from 299.57 USD/QALY for individuals aged 40–44?years to 1617.72 USD/QALY for individuals aged 65–69?years. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) supported the results of the base case analysis. One-time EC screening with follow-up targeting individuals aged 40–49?years was the most cost-effective strategy.
机译:本研究旨在探讨用途百合碘碘染色的一次性标准内镜筛选的成本效益,用于中国食管癌(EC)。建立了带有11个国家的马尔可夫决策分析模型。 40至69岁的人以五年的间隔分为六个年龄段。每个队列采用了三种不同的策略:(1)没有筛查; (2)用Lugol的碘染色的一次性内窥镜筛选,用于低级初始肿瘤(LING)的年后续行动; (3)用Lugol的碘染色无一次内窥镜筛查而没有随访。质量调整的寿命 - 年(QALYS)表明了模型的有效性。增量成本效益率(ICER)用作评估指标。进行敏感性分析以评估模型的稳健性。随访的一次性筛查是40-44岁及45-49岁的人的未实现的策略,与非网友战略相比,每年节省10,942.57美元和6611.73美元。对于那些50-69岁的人来说,那几年来,非疯狂的情景被撤军。无需后续的一次性筛选是扩展占主导地位的策略。与筛选策略相比没有随访,随访的所有筛选策略都是更具成本效益的,而ICER从299.57 USD / QALY为40-44岁的人的增加而增加?年龄至1617.72 USD / QALY为65岁的个人69?年。概率敏感性分析(PSA)支持基本情况分析的结果。一次性EC筛选随访的目标是40-49岁的人?年是最具成本效益的策略。

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