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Long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network for low-flow hydrological time series forecasting

机译:长短期内存(LSTM)常规神经网络用于低流动水文时间序列预测

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This article explores the suitability of a long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM-RNN) and artificial intelligence (AI) method for low-flow time series forecasting. The long short-term memory works on the sequential framework which considers all of the predecessor data. This forecasting method used daily discharged data collected from the Basantapur gauging station located on the Mahanadi River basin, India. Different metrics [root-mean-square error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS), correlation coefficient (R) and mean absolute error] were selected to assess the performance of the model. Additionally, recurrent neural network (RNN) model is also used to compare the adaptability of LSTM-RNN over RNN and nave method. The results conclude that the LSTM-RNN model (R = 0.943, ENS = 0.878, RMSE = 0.487) outperformed RNN model (R = 0.935, ENS = 0.843, RMSE = 0.516) and nave method (R = 0.866, ENS = 0.704, RMSE = 0.793). The finding of this research concludes that LSTM-RNN can be used as new reliable AI technique for low-flow forecasting.
机译:本文探讨了用于低流量时间序列预测的长短期记忆经常性神经网络(LSTM-RNN)和人工智能(AI)方法的适用性。长短期内存工作在序列框架上,该框架考虑所有前任数据。该预测方法使用了从位于印度Mahanadi River盆地的Basantapur测量站收集的日常出院数据。选择不同的指标[根均方误差(RMSE),NASH SUTCLIFFE效率(ENS),相关系数(R)和平均绝对错误]以评估模型的性能。另外,经常性神经网络(RNN)模型还用于比较LSTM-RNN在RNN和NAVE方法上的适应性。结果得出结论,LSTM-RNN模型(R = 0.943,ENS = 0.878,RMSE = 0.487)表现优于RNN模型(r = 0.935,eNS = 0.843,RMSE = 0.516)和Nave方法(r = 0.866,ENS = 0.704, RMSE = 0.793)。该研究的发现得出结论,LSTM-RNN可用作低流量预测的新可靠的AI技术。

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