Use of quantitative forecasting methods and error calculation for better adaptability to the application of a mathematical model to determine the speed of spread of a coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in Spain

摘要

This study shows the application of a mathematical model, previously developed, carried out by applying classical dimensional analysis techniques (ADC) to determine the speed of spread of a virus infection. Different hypotheses have been made to determine the boundary conditions of the model, as well as to obtain greater objectivity in its application. As a sample space to validate its behaviour and adaptability of the model, the evolution of the number of infected people in Spain has been studied. Forecasting studies have also been carried out using quantitative methods in a comparative manner by measuring the errors made. Some conclusions have been obtained that could be relevant for the development of future mathematical models and applications oriented to the study of airborne diseases.