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Weathering adaptation: Grid infrastructure planning in a changing climate

机译:风化适应:栅格基础设施在不断变化的气候下规划

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Decisions related to electric power systems planning and operations rely on assumptions and insights informed by historic weather data and records of past performance. Evolving climate trends are, however, changing the energy use patterns and operating conditions of grid assets, thus altering the nature and severity of risks the system faces. Because grid assets remain in operation for decades, planning for evolving risks will require incorporating climate projections into grid infrastructure planning processes. The current work traces a pathway for climate-aware decision-making in the electricity sector. We evaluate the suitability of using existing climate models and data for electricity planning and discuss their limitations. We review the interactions between grid infrastructure and climate by synthesizing what is known about how changing environmental operating conditions would impact infrastructure utilization, constraints, and performance. We contextualize our findings by presenting a case study of California, examining if and where climate data can be integrated into infrastructure planning processes. The core contribution of the work is a series of nine recommendations detailing advancements in climate projections, grid modeling architecture, and disaster preparedness that would be needed to ensure that infrastructure planning decisions are robust to uncertainty and risks associated with evolving climate conditions.
机译:与电力系统规划和运营相关的决策依赖于历史天气数据和过去性能记录了解的假设和见解。然而,不断发展的气候趋势改变了电网资产的能源使用模式和操作条件,从而改变了系统面孔的风险性质和严重程度。由于网格资产仍处于运营数十年中,因此规划不断发展的风险将要求将气候预测纳入网格基础设施规划过程。目前的工作追踪了电力行业气候知识决策的途径。我们评估使用现有的气候模型和电力规划数据的适用性,并讨论其局限性。我们通过综合了解如何改变环境操作条件会影响基础设施利用率,约束和性能,通过综合综合网格基础设施和气候之间的相互作用。我们通过展示加利福尼亚州的案例研究,检查了如何纳入基础设施规划流程的情况下,检查我们的调查结果。该工作的核心贡献是一系列九九建议,详细说明了气候预测,网格建模架构和备灾,以确保基础设施规划决策对不确定度和与不断发展的气候条件相关的风险的强大。

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