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Historical droughts in the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) of China

机译:清代历史干旱(1644-1911)

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This study presents a new epistemological analysis of drought chronology through a well-defined methodology for reconstructing past drought series, as well as series of other associated ecological and societal impact variables. Instead of building a grading system based on mixed criteria, this method facilitates transparency in the reconstruction process and enables the statistical examination of all variables when building series. The data for the present study are derived mainly from the REACHES (Reconstructed East Asian Climate Historical Encoded Series) database; however, other archival documentary and index data from independent sources are also applied to understand drought narratives and to cross-check and validate the analysis derived from REACHES. From the time series analysis, six severe drought periods are identified in the Qing dynasty, and then a spatial analysis is performed to demonstrate the spatial distribution of drought and other variables in the six periods, as well as a social network analysis to reveal connections between drought and other ecological and societal variables. Research results clearly illustrate the role of human intervention in influencing the impacts of drought and their societal consequences. Particularly, the correlation between drought and socioeconomic turmoil is not strong; crop failure and famine are important intermediate factors, while ecological factors such as locust and disaster relief measures are all imperative to intervene between crop production and famine. Implications of the study on drought impact are provided, as well as the significance of drought on historical climate reconstruction studies.
机译:本研究通过明确定义的方法来重建过去干旱系列,以及其他相关生态和社会影响变量,提出了对干旱年表的新认识论分析。该方法而不是基于混合标准构建分级系统,便于重建过程中的透明度,并在建筑系列时启用所有变量的统计检查。本研究的数据主要来自到来(重建东亚气候历史编码系列)数据库;然而,来自独立来源的其他档案文件和索引数据也适用于理解干旱叙述并交叉检查并验证来自达到的分析。从时间序列分析中,清代识别出六个严重的干旱期,然后进行空间分析,以展示六个时期的干旱和其他变量的空间分布,以及社交网络分析,以揭示之间的联系干旱和其他生态和社会变量。研究结果清楚地说明了人类干预在影响干旱和社会后果的影响方面的作用。特别是,干旱与社会经济动荡之间的相关性不强;作物失败和饥荒是重要的中间因素,而蝗虫和救灾措施等生态因素则均致命介入作物生产和饥荒。提供了研究对干旱影响的影响,以及干旱对历史气候重建研究的重要性。

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