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Asymmetric Macroeconomic Shocks and Asset Price Behaviors in Selected African Countries

机译:选定非洲国家的不对称宏观经济冲击和资产价格行为

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摘要

This study examines the relationship between Asset prices (Stock and Real estate prices) and Macroeconomic variables in four selected African countries. The study employs the Westerlund Error Correction Based Panel Cointegration test and Eight-variable Structural Vector Autoregressive model to examine the relationship between asset prices and macroeconomic variables. Findings from the study confirm that no long-run relationship exists between both Asset prices and macroeconomic variables. The study equally reveals that portfolio diversification benefits of both stock and real estate markets are more pronounced in the period of a boom than the recession period in Africa. The results also show that GDP growth rate shock exerts a significant impact on both asset prices during expansion and recession periods. The study reveals that foreign interest rates and World oil price shocks are better predictors of both stock and real estate prices during the crisis period than in the expansion period.
机译:本研究探讨了四个选定非洲国家的资产价格(股票和房地产价格)与宏观经济变量之间的关系。该研究采用了Westerlund基于纠正的面板协整测试和八个可变的结构矢量自动评级模型,以检查资产价格与宏观经济变量之间的关系。研究结果证实,在资产价格和宏观经济变量中不存在长期关系。该研究同样揭示了股票和房地产市场的投资组合多样化效益在繁荣时期比非洲经济衰退期更加明显。结果还表明,GDP增长率震动对扩建和衰退期间的资产价格产生重大影响。该研究表明,在危机期间,外国利率和世界油价震荡在危机期间的股票和房地产价格的更好预测因素比扩张期。

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