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Machine Learning techniques in breast cancer prognosis prediction: A primary evaluation

机译:乳腺癌预测预测的机器学习技术:初级评价

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More than 750?000 women in Italy are surviving a diagnosis of breast cancer. A large body of literature tells us which characteristics impact the most on their prognosis. However, the prediction of each disease course and then the establishment of a therapeutic plan and follow‐up tailored to the patient is still very complicated. In order to address this issue, a multidisciplinary approach has become widely accepted, while the Multigene Signature Panels and the Nottingham Prognostic Index are still discussed options. The current technological resources permit to gather many data for each patient. Machine Learning (ML) allows us to draw on these data, to discover their mutual relations and to esteem the prognosis for the new instances. This study provides a primary evaluation of the application of ML to predict breast cancer prognosis. We analyzed 1021 patients who underwent surgery for breast cancer in our Institute and we included 610 of them. Three outcomes were chosen: cancer recurrence (both loco‐regional and systemic) and death from the disease within 32?months. We developed two types of ML models for every outcome (Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine). Each ML algorithm was tested in accuracy (=95.29%‐96.86%), sensitivity (=0.35‐0.64), specificity (=0.97‐0.99), and AUC (=0.804‐0.916). These models might become an additional resource to evaluate the prognosis of breast cancer patients in our daily clinical practice. Before that, we should increase their sensitivity, according to literature, by considering a wider population sample with a longer period of follow‐up. However, specificity, accuracy, minimal additional costs, and reproducibility are already encouraging.
机译:意大利超过750 000名女性在患有乳腺癌的诊断中。大量的文献告诉我们,其特点对其预后的影响最大。然而,预测每种疾病课程,然后建立治疗计划和对患者的随访仍然非常复杂。为了解决这个问题,多学科方法已被广泛接受,而多烯签名面板和诺丁汉预后指数仍讨论选项。目前的技术资源允许为每位患者收集许多数据。机器学习(ML)允许我们借鉴这些数据,以发现他们的相互关系,并为新实例倾向于尊重预后。本研究提供了ML施用以预测乳腺癌预后的主要评价。我们分析了1021名接受我们研究所乳腺癌手术的患者,我们包括610人。选择了三种结果:癌症复发(基因群区域和全身)和从32个月内从疾病中死亡。我们为每个结果(人工神经网络和支持向量机)开发了两种类型的ML模型。每种ML算法精确地测试(= 95.29%-96.86%),灵敏度(= 0.35-0.64),特异性(= 0.97-0.99)和AUC(= 0.804-0.916)。这些模型可能成为评估我们日常临床实践中乳腺癌患者预后的额外资源。在此之前,根据文献,我们应该通过考虑更广泛的随访时间来提高他们的敏感性。但是,特殊性,准确性,最小的额外成本和再现性已经令人鼓舞。

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