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A preoperative mortality risk assessment model for Stanford type A acute aortic dissection

机译:斯坦福大学术前死亡率风险评估模型急性主动脉夹层

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Acute aortic dissection type A is a life-threatening disease required emergency surgery during acute phase. Different clinical manifestations, laboratory tests, and imaging features of patients with acute aortic dissection type A are the risk factors of preoperative mortality. This study aims to establish a simple and effective preoperative mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute aortic dissection type A. A total of 673 Chinese patients with acute aortic dissection type A who were admitted to our hospital were retrospectively included. All patients were unable to receive surgically treatment within 3?days from the onset of disease. The patients included were divided into the survivor and deceased groups, and the endpoint event was preoperative death. Multivariable analysis was used to investigate predictors of preoperative mortality and to develop a prediction model. Among the 673 patients, 527 patients survived (78.31%) and 146 patients died (21.69%). The developmental dataset had 505 patients, calibration by Hosmer Lemeshow was significant (χ2?=?3.260, df?=?8, P?=?0.917) and discrimination by area under ROC curve was 0.8448 (95% CI 0.8007–0.8888). The validation dataset had 168 patients, calibration was significant (χ2?=?5.500, df?=?8, P?=?0.703) and the area under the ROC curve was 0.8086 (95% CI 0.7291–0.8881). The following independent variables increased preoperative mortality: age (OR?=?1.008, P?=?0.510), abrupt chest pain (OR?=?3.534, P??0.001), lactic in arterial blood gas?≥?3?mmol/L (OR?=?3.636, P??0.001), inotropic support (OR?=?8.615, P??0.001), electrocardiographic myocardial ischemia (OR?=?3.300, P?=?0.001), innominate artery involvement (OR?=?1.625, P?=?0.104), right common carotid artery involvement (OR?=?3.487, P?=?0.001), superior mesenteric artery involvement (OR?=?2.651, P?=?0.001), false lumen / true lumen of ascending aorta?≥?0.75 (OR?=?2.221, P?=?0.007). Our data suggest that a simple and effective preoperative death risk assessment model has been established. Using a simple and effective risk assessment model can help clinicians quickly identify high-risk patients and make appropriate medical decisions.
机译:急性主动脉夹层A型是突发期间需要危及生命的疾病在急性期期间应急手术。急性主动脉夹层患者患者的不同临床表现,实验室测试和成像特征是术前死亡率的危险因素。本研究旨在为急性主动脉溶解型患者建立简单有效的术前死亡率风险评估模型A.批评了673例中国急性主动脉夹层型患者患者被回顾。所有患者在疾病发作后,所有患者都无法在3℃内接受手术治疗。包括的患者分为幸存者和死者组,终点事件是术前死亡。多变量分析用于调查术前死亡率的预测因子并开发预测模型。在673名患者中,527名患者存活(78.31%)和146名患者死亡(21.69%)。发展数据集具有505名患者,Hosmer Lemeshow的校准显着(χ2?= 3.260,DF?=?8,p?= 0.917),ROC曲线下面积的歧视为0.8448(95%CI 0.8007-0.8888)。验证数据集有168名患者,校准很大(χ2?=Δ5.500,DF?=?8,P?= 0.703),ROC曲线下的面积为0.8086(95%CI 0.7291-0.8881)。以下独立变量增加了术前死亡率:年龄(或?=?1.008,P?= 0.510),突然胸部疼痛(或?3.534,P?<0.001),动脉血气中的乳酸?≥?3? Mmol / L(或?= 3.636,p?<0.001),透镜载体(或?=α.8.615,p?<〜0.001),心电图心肌缺血(或?=?3.300,p?= 0.001),无名的动脉参与(或?=?1.625,P?= 0.104),右常见的颈动脉受累(或?= 3.487,p?= 0.001),优异的肠系膜动脉受累(或?=?2.651,P?= ?0.001),假腔/真腔的上升主动脉?≥?0.75(或?=?2.221,P?= 0.007)。我们的数据表明,已经建立了简单有效的术前死亡风险评估模型。使用简单有效的风险评估模型可以帮助临床医生快速识别高危患者并进行适当的医学决策。

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