A multicriteria approach for analysis of the impact of GHG limiting policies on economic growth in Poland

摘要

The paper deals with the following questions: How to best proceed with a process of the macroeconomic transformation of a medium-size European country due to adjustment of its economy to the EU policy aimed at reducing CO2 emission? What may be the consequences of the enforced emission limits for the economic development and future consumption? To answer these questions a computer-based system has been constructed including a macroeconomic model and a multicriteria optimization tool for two opposing objectives: maximization of the consumption and minimization of the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission. The model contains four production sectors with a special attention devoted to the energy sector, where four technologies are distinguished: the traditional, the modernized traditional and nuclear energy, and the renewable one. The model is the long-horizon one and describes equilibrium trajectories. The multicriteria optimization tool is developed using the reference point approach to support interactive analysis of Pareto optimal outcomes. Computational results are presented for the case of Poland. The welfare costs of the pursuing GHG limiting policy are assessed. Trajectories of the technological changes in time to achieve required limits of CO2 emission are computed.