Chaotic phenomenon and the maximum predictable time scale of observation series of urban hourly water consumption

摘要

The chaotic characteristics and maximum predictable time scale of the observation series of hourly water consumption in Hangzhou were investigated using the advanced algorithm presented here is based on the conventional Wolf’s algorithm for the largest lyapunov exponent. For comparison, the largest lyapunov exponents of water consumption series with one-hour and 24-hour intervals were calculated respectively. The results indicated that chaotic characteristics obviously exist in the hourly water consumption system; and that observation series with 24-hour interval have longer maximum predictable scale than hourly series. These findings could have significant practical application for better prediction of urban hourly water consumption.