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Forecasting the Rainfall Pattern on Upstream of Hirakud Reservoir Using L-Moment for Accessing the Inflow

机译:利用L-LOME访问流入的地下水储层上游降雨模式

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摘要

Changes in the rainfall pattern are a challenge for filling schedule of reservoir, when it is fulfilling various demands. In monsoon fed reservoirs, the target remains for attaining full reservoir capacity in order to meet various demands during non-monsoon period and the flood control. The planners always eye towards the inflow trend and perspective frequency of rainfall in order to counter the extreme events. In this study, the case of Hirakud reservoir of Mahanadi basin of India is considered as this reservoir meets various demands as well as controls devastating floods. The inflow trend has been detected by using Mann Kendall test. The frequency analysis of monthly rainfall is calculated using L-moment program for finalizing a regional distribution. The falling trend in inflow to reservoir is visualized in the month of July and August. The Wakeby distribution is found suitable for the monthly rainfall of July, September and October, where as in June and August, General Extreme Value (GEV), General Normal (GN) and Pearson Type-III (PT-III) distributions are found suitable. The regional growth factors for the 20, 40, 50 and 100-year return period rain-falls along with inflow to reservoir observed between 1958-2010 are calculated in this study as a referral for reservoir operation policy.
机译:在满足各种需求的情况下,降雨模式的变化是填充水库的挑战。在季风喂养水库中,目标仍有用于达到全水库能力,以满足非季风期间的各种需求和防洪。规划者始终朝向降雨的流入趋势和透视频率,以抵消极端事件。在这项研究中,印度Mahanadi盆地的Hirakud储层的案例被认为是这个水库符合各种要求以及控制毁灭性洪水的控制。使用Mann Kendall测试检测到流入趋势。利用L-MOWER计划计算每月降雨的频率分析,以完成区域分布。将流入水库流入的趋势在7月和8月的月份可视化。发现叫醒的分布适用于7月,9月和10月的每月降雨,在6月份和8月,一般极值(GEV),一般正常(GN)和Pearson型III(PT-III)分布是合适的。在本研究中计算了20,40,50和100年回报期的区域增长因素与1958 - 2010年之间观察到的水库流入,以储层运营政策推荐。

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