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A Random Walk Model for Stock Market Prices | Science Publications

机译:股票市场价格随机步行型号|科学出版物

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> Problem statement: The stock exchange market has been one of the most popular investments in the recent past due to its high returns. The market has become an integral part of the global economy to the extent that any fluctuation in this market influences personal and corporate financial lives and the economic health of a country. The daily behavior of the market prices revealed that the future stock prices cannot be predicted based on past movements. Approach: In this study, we analyzed the behavior of daily return of Nigerian stock market prices. The sample included daily market prices of all securities listed in the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE). Results: The result from the study provided evidence that the Nigerian stock exchange is not efficient even in weak form and that NSE follow the random walk model. The idealized stock price in the Nigerian stock exchange is a martingale. Conclusion: Martingale defines the fairness or unfairness of the investment and no investor can alter the stock price as defined by expectation.
机译: > 问题声明:由于其高回报,证券交易所市场是最近过去最受欢迎的投资之一。该市场已成为全球经济的一部分,在这一市场的任何波动影响个人和企业的金融生命和国家的经济健康方面的范围内。市场价格的日常行为透露,由于过去的运动,无法预测未来的股票价格。 方法:在本研究中,我们分析了尼日利亚股票市场日常返回的行为。该样品包括尼日利亚证券交易所(NSE)中列出的所有证券的每日市场价格。 结果:第研究结果提供了表明尼日利亚证券交易所即使在弱形形式中也不高效,并且NSE遵循随机步行模式。尼日利亚证券交易所的理想股价是鞅。 结论: Martingale定义了投资的公平性或不公平,并且没有投资者可以改变预期所定义的股价。

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