A Stochastic Investigation of Solar Energy Application Potential in Rural Households of Kenya and the Associated Environmental Benefits

摘要

In this study, the potential of solar energy for use in rural households of Kenya has been investigated. The main objective was to determine the viability of the solar energy resource as an alternative energy source that would alleviate or minimize the myriad of environmental and health problems associated with biomass based fuels predominantly used in the households. The stochastic behavior of sunny and cloudy spells has been modeled using the theory of runs, Poisson probability density function of occurrence of the spells and the geometric distribution of the length of the spells. A major application of the spells analysis is in the prediction of extended sunny and cloudy durations, which forms a basis for planning the solar energy use strategies. Results have indicated that the potential is quite promising and that substantial wood fuel savings and CO2 reductions are envisaged. These translated to environmental conservation and reduced risks of exposures to health hazards associated with wood fuel use.