Finance-Growth Nexus and Globalization in Brazil, India, Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey: Evidence from VECM Cointegration Analysis

摘要

We investigate the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth―the finance-growth nexus―in Brazil, India, Philippines, Thailand, and Turkey by controlling for the globalization indicators of trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI), and portfolio investment, together with the structural break dummy. Our sample countries of different regions have various experiences of developing and liberalizing their financial systems and external sectors as well as financial crises. Time series data span over the period 1974-2017, and two financial indicators of size and efficiency are used in estimation. Implementing the cointegration and Granger causality tests in the framework of the vector error correction model (VECM), we find that: 1) financial size and economic growth are in a positive, bilateral relationship in all the sample countries, although that of Turkey is more inclining toward economic growth causing financial size; 2) when financial development is proxied by financial efficiency, the results are different among the five countries; and 3) although theoretically expected to be contributive, the globalization indicators of trade openness, FDI, and portfolio investment exhibit either a positive or negative impact on financial development and economic growth. Based on empirical findings, we argue that policy-makers should design and develop financial sector polices and growth strategies fully considering the nature of their countries’ own institutional and structural characteristics.