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Path Choice of Emergency Logistics Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

机译:基于累积前景理论的应急物流路径选择

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We study the problem of path choice for emergency logistics in this paper. Based on the uncertainty environment during the path choice from emergency logistics network and the bounded rationality of decision makers, cumulative prospect theory is introduced to study the problem of emergency logistics path choice with comprehensive consideration of path properties and risk attitude of decision makers. In addition, the decision behavior of decision maker with the attitude of risk seeking and risk aversion under limited rationality is comprehensively analyzed respectively. Based on the choice behavior, a strategy to demarcate the value of reference point value is also proposed, and an optimization model is used to obtain the combined weight based on the moment estimation. Finally, both the theory and model are verified by calculation and compared analysis in a case study. In addition, perturbation analyses of related parameter are carried out to further reveal the influence mechanism between the prospect value of each path and related parameters. The result shows that the decision-making model can make emergency logistics path choice with higher efficiency and reliability under different complex interference conditions.
机译:我们研究了本文中应急物流路径选择问题。基于应急物流网络的路径选择期间的不确定性环境以及决策者的有界合理性,累计前景理论旨在研究应急物流路径选择问题,以综合考虑决策者的路径特性及风险态度。此外,分别综合分析了决策者具有风险态度和风险厌恶的决策者的决策行为得到了全面分析。基于选择行为,还提出了一种划分参考点值的值的策略,并且使用优化模型基于矩估计获得组合权重。最后,在案例研究中通过计算和比较分析来验证理论和模型。此外,对相关参数进行扰动分析,以进一步揭示每个路径和相关参数的前景值之间的影响机制。结果表明,决策模型可以在不同复杂干扰条件下具有更高的效率和可靠性的紧急物流路径选择。

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