Modeling Influencing Factors for Passenger Flow Growth of Modern Trams Using System Dynamics Method

摘要

Modern trams have been widely used around the world, especially in China. This paper explores the main influencing factors of modern trams’ passenger flow at the early operational stage. The system dynamics model is adopted for dealing with the problem on hand. Tram Line 1 in Huai’an, Jiangsu Province, China is selected as the case study. Data are collected using the RP and SP survey. The sensitivity test and extreme condition test are performed. The simulation results demonstrate that four variables (i.e., land development intensity, fares, service level, and transfer efficiency) significantly affect passenger flow. Land development intensity is the most significant factor, and the effect of service level on passenger flow is higher than that of the fares. The departure interval of 10 minutes is the maximum psychological limit that passengers can bear, and 2 RMB is a reasonable price. Such conclusions can provide guidance for the planning and design of modern trams and address the problem of shortage of passengers at an early stage.