Frequency and magnitude variability of Yalu River flooding: numerical analyses for the last 1000?years

摘要

Accurate determination of past flooding characteristics is necessary to effectively predict the future flood disaster risk and dominant controls. However, understanding the effects of environmental forcing on past flooding frequency and magnitude is difficult owing to the deficiency of observations (data available for less than 10 % of the world's rivers) and extremely short measurement time series (100?years). In this study, a numerical model, HYDROTREND, which generates synthetic time series of daily water discharge at a river outlet, was applied to the Yalu River to (1)?reconstruct annual peak discharges over the past 1000?years and estimate flood annual exceedance probabilities and (2)?identify and quantify the impacts of climate change and human activity (runoff yield induced by deforestation and dam retention) on the flooding frequency and magnitude. Climate data obtained from meteorological stations and ECHO-G climate model output, morphological characteristics (hypsometry, drainage area, river length, slope, and lapse rate), and hydrological properties (groundwater properties, canopy interception effects, cascade reservoir retention effect, and saturated hydraulic conductivity) form significant reliable model inputs. Monitored for decades, some proxies on ancient floods allow for accurate calibration and validation of numerical modeling. Simulations match well the present-day monitored data?(1958–2012) and the literature records of historical flood events?(1000–1958). They indicate that flood frequencies of the Yalu River increased during?1000–1940, followed by a decrease until the present day. Frequency trends were strongly modulated by climate variability, particularly by the intensity and frequency of rainfall events. The magnitudes of larger floods, events with a return period of 50?to 100?years, increased by 19.1 % and 13.9 %, respectively, due to climate variability over the last millennium. Anthropogenic processes were found to either enhance or reduce flooding, depending on the type of human activities. Deforestation increased the magnitude of larger floods (100- and 50-year floods) by 19.2 %–20.3 %, but the construction of cascade reservoirs in 1940 significantly reduced their magnitude by 36.7 % to 41.7 %. We conclude that under intensified climate change and human activities in the future, effective river engineering should be considered, particularly for small- and medium-sized mountainous river systems, which are at a higher risk of flood disasters owing to their relatively poor hydrological regulation capacity.