Perspectivas del sector agroalimentario mexicano: Un análisis de encadenamientos intersectoriales / Perspectives of the mexican agricultural/food sector: An analysis of intersectorial links / Perspectivas do setor agroalimentar mexicano: Uma análise das liga??es intersetoriais

摘要

The agri-food sector has a significant impact on the national economy due to the products, services and sources of employment it generates. The objective of this work was to formulate scenarios for the agri-food sector for years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, based on the analysis of linkages with the others Mexican productive sectors. The methodology was based on the 2012 Input-Output Matrix (IOM), made up of 259 branches of economic activity; of which, the Agriculture, Livestock, Manufacturing and Food and Beverage Preparation sectors were disarticulated, to obtain the six branches that were considered as the agri-food sector; the service sectors were grouped into one and the rest of the sectors were left intact to obtain a matrix of 14 sectors. Results showed that contribution of the agri-food sector to Mexico will continue to be just 11.1 % of the national GDP for the years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 and its growth rates will be 2.2 %; 5.02 %; 4.32 % and 3.69 %, respectively, and although these will be positive for the years under consideration, the agri-food trade balance will still be in deficit.