Who joins counter-hegemonic IGOs? Early and late members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

摘要

What makes states join intergovernmental organizations intended to challenge a hegemon? The China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), founded in June 2015, targets the primacy of the US-led Asian Development Bank (ADB) in the Asia-Pacific region, and is a crucial case for answering this question. I argue that early AIIB members are likely to be politically distant from the US in both international and domestic terms. In contrast, subsequent states seeking AIIB membership include democratic states, existing ADB members and countries internationally aligned with the US, as measured by voting similarity at the United Nations General Assembly. Through logit models, I test these propositions and analyze which states adhered to the 2014 Memorandum of Understanding that signaled Beijing’s willingness to form the Bank and which states joined the AIIB subsequently at its foundation in 2015. The results support my claim that early members tend to score low in democratic governance, while late members are US allies.