An Empirical Study on Employment Changes in China—Based on VAR Model

摘要

The paper aimed to empirically study the dynamic mechanism of China’s employment changes, using the VAR model to use China’s 1981-2019 time series data to construct economic growth, industrial structure changes and capital investment indicators. Research shows that: China’s economic growth can promote labor employment; the proportion of secondary industry and tertiary industry can promote labor employment, but the employment effect of tertiary industry is higher than that of secondary industry; capital investment has a significant negative effect on the employment elasticity coefficient. At the same time, in order to quantitatively study the impact of various variables on changes in the employment structure, specific consideration is given to the short-term and long-term phases. Finally, based on the conclusion of the study, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.