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Do industries predict the stock market due to slow diffusion of information?

机译:由于信息的缓慢扩散,行业预测股市吗?

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The slow diffusion of information hypothesis has emerged as a more convincing explanation for lead-lag patterns in assets returns compared to traditional explanations such as non-synchronous or thin trading, liquidity factor, or size factor, etc. We provide further support to slow diffusion of information hypothesis from an emerging market. We use a rich data set of weekly returns of 34 industries listed at the Karachi Stock Exchange over the period 1998 to 2011. In a separate regression for each industry, we regress KSE-100 Index current returns on the lagged industry returns and a set of control variables. Our results indicate that a large number of industries predict the market returns up to 3 weeks. The predictive power of industries decreases as we increase the prediction horizon. These findings are robust even after we control for known predictors of market return such as size of an industry, trading volume of an industry, and the lagged trading volume of the market. Our results support the slow diffusion of information hypothesis.
机译:信息假设的缓慢扩散是由于与非同步或薄交易,流动性因子或大小因素等的传统解释相比,资产滞后模式的铅滞模式更令人信服地解释。我们提供了对慢速扩散的进一步支持新兴市场信息假设。我们在1998年至2011年期间使用在卡拉奇证券交易所上市的34个行业的丰富数据集。在对每个行业的单独回归中,我们在滞后行业回报和一套上的kse-100指数当前回报率控制变量。我们的结果表明,大量行业预测市场返回长达3周。随着我们增加预测地平线,行业的预测力量降低。即使在我们控制市场回报的已知预测因子之后,这些发现是强大的,例如行业规模,交易量的行业,交易量和市场的滞后交易量。我们的结果支持信息假设的缓慢扩散。

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