Short-term peak electricity demand in South Africa

摘要

The paper discusses the modelling and forecasting of daily winter peak electricity loads in South Africa for the period 2000 to 2009 using a regression model that allows for nonlinear and nonparametric terms. A demand model for daily winter peaks is developed and used for out of sample predictions. Empirical results show that electricity demand in South Africa is highly sensitive to temperature fluctuations during the winter periods.