Geological seabed stability model for informing Irish offshore renewable energy opportunities

摘要

Abstract. Climate change has driven the European Union to propose a reduction incarbon emissions by increasing renewable energy production. Although Irelandis rich in renewable energy, especially offshore wind resources, it isfailing to reduce its annual carbon emissions. This study endeavours toimprove Ireland's marine spatial planning abilities and offshore renewableenergy developments by harmonising and customising a unique geologicaldataset for incorporation into geospatial assessments of Ireland'scontinental shelf. A dataset of 1858 points, including 17 new seabedsamples collected at strategic sites for this study, is created and used tobuild a series of geospatial outputs. Data are interpolated with empiricalBayesian kriging to use variogram analyses for probabilisticallyinterpolating coded geological values. The interpolation results arevalidated through leave-one-out cross-validation and combined with bespokemodels of bathymetry and seabed slope using map algebra. The final modelreveals areas of relative probable seabed stability based on geological andgeomorphological characteristics and is shown to comport with knownconditions in several locations. Results suggest that the methods andresults presented here could provide useful information to future planningactivities and initial site selection assessments.