Fusion of Simulated and Observational Temperature Data in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on High-Accuracy Surface Modeling

摘要

Temperature changes have a major impact on all aspects of human society and have attracted global attention. The scarcity of observation data and the inaccuracy of the models make obtaining accurate temperature distributions a challenge. This study introduces high-accuracy surface modeling (HASM) combined with temperature simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and temperature records from observation stations to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the period of 1956–2005. Leave-one-out cross-validation is applied to verify the temperature fields before and after the fusion of the models. The results indicate that the WRF model has a limited ability to simulate temperature conditions, but the overall deviation across the region is relatively large. The fusion results of the HASM decrease the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) by half in most instances, and the correlation between the fusion data and observation data is approximately 0.01–0.03 higher than that with the WRF simulation data. Based on the fusion data, obvious warming trends are observed during 1976–2005. In general, temperatures in spring, summer, and autumn increase rapidly from 1996 to 2005 but from 1976 to 1995 in winter. The substantial fluctuations in the interannual temperature during 1996–2005 in summer, autumn, and winter may be related to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather. The spatial distribution of temperature change differs in each season during 1956–1995. A dramatic increase in temperature occurs in the western part of the study area during 1996–2005 but with no seasonal difference.