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首页> 外文期刊>Climate of the past >A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of iCedrus?deodara/i?D. Don from the Hindu Kush?range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations
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A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of iCedrus?deodara/i?D. Don from the Hindu Kush?range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

机译:一个424年的树木圈帕尔默干旱严重性指数 Cedrus?deodara ?d。从印度教班斯?范围的巴基斯坦:与海洋振荡的联系

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摘要

The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush?range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424?years, going back to?1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0?years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.
机译:全球变暖速度导致了持续的干旱。它被认为是影响西亚供水和森林生态系统的动态预测背景下的社会经济发展的初步因素。然而,半干旱印度犬的长期气候记录?范围严重缺乏。因此,我们开发了跨越1537-2017的Cedrus deodara的新树环宽度年表。我们重建了3月8日帕尔默干旱严重程度指数(PDSI)在过去的424年?年,回到?1593 CE。我们的重建功能九个干燥期(1593-1598,1631-1645,1647-1660,1756-1765,1785-1800,1870-1878,1917-1923和1981-1995)和八个潮湿的时期(1663年-1675,1687-1708,1771-1773,1806-1814,1844-1852,1932-1935,1965-1969和1990-1999)。这种重建与西亚的其他树枝状重建一致,从而确认其可靠性。多锥形方法和小波分析显示周期性的干旱变异,为2.1-2.4,3.3,6.0,16.8和34.0-38.0?年。干旱模式可能与大规模的大气 - 海洋变异性相关联,例如EL NI?O-Southern振荡,大西洋多型振荡和太阳能活动。在当前的气候条件方面,我们的调查结果对在巴基斯坦北部印度诗山脉山脉的条件中制定抗旱政策的重要意义。

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