Modeling the 10,000-Year Geomagnetic Disturbance Scenarios Based on Extreme Value Analysis

摘要

Modeling the extreme geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) scenarios is of great significance for risk assessment of the power system. In this letter, we model the 10,000-year GMD scenarios using the extreme value analysis to complement the classical 100-year and 200-year events. The 10,000-year GMD event is required for safety-critical nodes such as the ultra-high voltage (UHV)/extra-high voltage (EHV) substations and nuclear power plants, etc. The return level of geomagnetic variation is estimated using the geomagnetic observations based on extreme value theory, which is then combined with the theoretical upper limit of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index to establish the 10,000-year GMD scenarios. Finally, we present an application example of 10,000-year geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in the Sanhua UHV power grid.