Simulation of meteorological drought using exponential smoothing models: a study on Bankura District, West Bengal, India

摘要

Water scarcity and drought management is the burning issue in India and hence needs serious attention of researchersto develop rigorous plan and management. Areas that belong to various plateaus, e.g., Chotanagpur plateau, Deccanplateau, etc., are mostly affected by drought in India. In the past decade, Bankura District of West Bengal, which belongsto northeast part of Chotanagpur plateau, faced severe drought several times. However, the assessment of droughtscenario in this area is far from conclusive statement till date. In this paper, we simulate standardized precipitation index(SPI) using double exponential (DE) and Holt–Winter exponential smoothing model (HW) for several time steps (e.g.,3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months and 48 months) in the time period of 1979–2014. The comparative analysisbetween two models indicates that DE is more accurate one. DE is observed with relatively low root mean squared error(RMSE) and high R~2 value. Furthermore, drought-prone zones are demarcated using combined scores of principal componentanalysis (PCA) and those combined scores are estimated using actual, HW and DE simulated SPI in several timesteps. At the shorter (3 and 6 months) and longer time step (12, 24 and 48 months), the PCA demonstrates almost sameresults. The western and northwestern blocks of the district are severely affected by drought, and the southern portionsare at mild condition. Spatially distributed RMSE in every time steps is also high in northwestern portions of the studyregion. Our result may be useful to understand the pattern of drought to take necessary action in management of waterresources in Bankura District, West Bengal. Moreover, the study uses an unique methodology to simulate and assessmeteorological drought, which is applicable in any region of the world.