APS -APS March Meeting 2017 - Event - How Market Structure Drives Commodity Prices

摘要

To understand how market structure drives commodity price trends with respect to resource availability we introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point marking the disappearance of excess producers. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.