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Fuzzy Modeling to Forecast an Electric Load Time Series

机译:模糊建模预测电力负荷时间序列

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This paper tests and compares two types of modelling to predict the same time series. A time series of electric load was observed and, as a case study, we opted for the metropolitan region of Bahia State. The combination of three exogenous variables were attempted in each model. The exogenous variables are: the number of customers connected to the electricity distribution network, the temperature and the precipitation of rain. The linear model time series forecasting used was a SARIMAX. The modelling of computational intelligence used to predict the time series was a Fuzzy Inference System. According to the evaluation of the attempts, the Fuzzy forecasting system presented the lowest error. But among the smallest errors, the results of the attempts also indicated different exogenous variables for each forecast model.
机译:本文测试并比较了两种类型的建模以预测同一时间序列。观察到电力负荷的时间序列,作为案例研究,我们选择了巴伊亚州的大都市地区。在每个模型中尝试了三个外生变量的组合。外生变量是:连接到配电网络的用户数量,温度和雨水的降水量。所使用的线性模型时间序列预测是SARIMAX。用于预测时间序列的计算智能模型是模糊推理系统。根据尝试的评估,模糊预测系统的误差最低。但是在最小的误差中,尝试的结果还表明每个预测模型的外生变量不同。

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