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首页> 外文期刊>The Astrophysical journal >TESTING AUTOMATED SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING WITH 13 YEARS OF MICHELSON DOPPLER IMAGER MAGNETOGRAMS
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TESTING AUTOMATED SOLAR FLARE FORECASTING WITH 13 YEARS OF MICHELSON DOPPLER IMAGER MAGNETOGRAMS

机译:使用MICHELSON多普勒成像仪13年的自动太阳耀斑预测测试

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Flare occurrence is statistically associated with changes in several characteristics of the line-of-sight magnetic field in solar active regions (ARs). We calculated magnetic measures throughout the disk passage of 1075 ARs spanning solar cycle 23 to find a statistical relationship between the solar magnetic field and flares. This expansive study of over 71,000 magnetograms and 6000 flares uses superposed epoch (SPE) analysis to investigate changes in several magnetic measures surrounding flares and ARs completely lacking associated flares. The results were used to seek any flare associated signatures with the capability to recover weak systematic signals with SPE analysis. SPE analysis is a method of combining large sets of data series in a manner that yields concise information. This is achieved by aligning the temporal location of a specified flare in each time series, then calculating the statistical moments of the "overlapping" data. The best-calculated parameter, the gradient-weighted inversion-line length (GWILL), combines the primary polarity inversion line (PIL) length and the gradient across it. Therefore, GWILL is sensitive to complex field structures via the length of the PIL and shearing via the gradient. GWILL shows an average 35% increase during the 40 hr prior to X-class flares, a 16% increase before M-class flares, and 17% increase prior to B-C-class flares. ARs not associated with flares tend to decrease in GWILL during their disk passage. Gilbert and Heidke skill scores are also calculated and show that even GWILL is not a reliable parameter for predicting solar flares in real time.
机译:在统计上,耀斑的发生与太阳活动区域(AR)中视线磁场的几个特征的变化有关。我们计算了横跨太阳周期23的1075个AR的整个磁盘通道的磁测度,以找到太阳磁场与耀斑之间的统计关系。这项对71,000多个磁图和6000耀斑的广泛研究使用叠加纪元(SPE)分析来研究围绕耀斑和完全缺少相关耀斑的AR的几种磁测量的变化。该结果用于寻找与火炬相关的特征,并具有通过SPE分析恢复弱系统信号的能力。 SPE分析是一种以产生简明信息的方式组合大量数据系列的方法。这是通过在每个时间序列中对齐指定耀斑的时间位置,然后计算“重叠”数据的统计矩来实现的。计算得最好的参数是梯度加权的反演线长度(GWILL),它结合了主极性反演线(PIL)长度和其上的梯度。因此,GWILL通过PIL的长度和通过梯度的剪切对复杂的场结构敏感。 GWILL显示X级爆发前40个小时内平均增加35%,M级爆发前增加16%,B-C级爆发前增加17%。与耀斑无关的AR在磁盘通过过程中GWILL趋于减少。吉尔伯特(Gilbert)和海德克(Heidke)的技能得分也得到了计算,表明即使GWILL也不是实时预测太阳耀斑的可靠参数。

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