首页> 外文期刊>The Astrophysical journal >THE M31 VELOCITY VECTOR. III. FUTURE MILKY WAY M31–M33 ORBITAL EVOLUTION, MERGING, AND FATE OF THE SUN
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THE M31 VELOCITY VECTOR. III. FUTURE MILKY WAY M31–M33 ORBITAL EVOLUTION, MERGING, AND FATE OF THE SUN

机译:M31速度矢量。三,未来的银河系M31–M33轨道演化,融合和太阳的命运

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We study the future orbital evolution and merging of the Milky Way (MW)-M31-M33 system, using a combination of collisionless N-body simulations and semi-analytic orbit integrations. Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the consequences of varying all relevant initial phase-space and mass parameters within their observational uncertainties. The observed M31 transverse velocity from Papers I and II implies that the MW and M31 will merge t = 5.86+1.61 –0.72 Gyr from now. The first pericenter occurs at t = 3.87+0.42 –0.32 Gyr, at a pericenter distance of r = 31.0+38.0 –19.8 kpc. In 41% of Monte Carlo orbits, M31 makes a direct hit with the MW, defined here as a first-pericenter distance less than 25 kpc. For the M31-M33 system, the first-pericenter time and distance are t = 0.85+0.18 –0.13 Gyr and r = 80.8+42.2 –31.7 kpc. By the time M31 gets to its first pericenter with the MW, M33 is close to its second pericenter with M31. For the MW-M33 system, the first-pericenter time and distance are t = 3.70+0.74 –0.46 Gyr and r = 176.0+239.0 –136.9 kpc. The most likely outcome is for the MW and M31 to merge first, with M33 settling onto an orbit around them that may decay toward a merger later. However, there is a 9% probability that M33 makes a direct hit with the MW at its first pericenter, before M31 gets to or collides with the MW. Also, there is a 7% probability that M33 gets ejected from the Local Group, temporarily or permanently. The radial mass profile of the MW-M31 merger remnant is significantly more extended than the original profiles of either the MW or M31, and suggests that the merger remnant will resemble an elliptical galaxy. The Sun will most likely (~85% probability) end up at a larger radius from the center of the MW-M31 merger remnant than its current distance from the MW center, possibly further than 50 kpc (~10% probability). There is a ~20% probability that the Sun will at some time in the next 10 Gyr find itself moving through M33 (within 10 kpc), but while dynamically still bound to the MW-M31 merger remnant. The arrival and possible collision of M31 (and possibly M33) with the MW is the next major cosmic event affecting the environment of our Sun and solar system that can be predicted with some certainty.
机译:我们结合无碰撞N体模拟和半解析轨道积分,研究了银河系(MW)-M31-M33系统的未来轨道演化和合并。蒙特卡洛模拟用于探索在观测不确定性范围内改变所有相关初始相空间和质量参数的后果。从论文I和II观察到的M31横向速度表明,MW和M31从现在起将合并t = 5.86 + 1.61 –0.72 Gyr。第一个中心点发生在t = 3.87 + 0.42 –0.32 Gyr,中心点距离为r = 31.0 + 38.0 –19.8 kpc。在31%的蒙特卡洛轨道中,M31受到MW的直接撞击,此处定义为第一中心距小于25 kpc。对于M31-M33系统,第一中心时间和距离为t = 0.85 + 0.18 –0.13 Gyr和r = 80.8 + 42.2 –31.7 kpc。到M31到达MW的第一个中心时,M33接近M31的第二个中心。对于MW-M33系统,第一中心时间和距离为t = 3.70 + 0.74 –0.46 Gyr,r = 176.0 + 239.0 –136.9 kpc。最有可能的结果是MW和M31首先合并,而M33沉降到它们周围的轨道上,然后可能会衰落并入合并。但是,在M31到达MW或与MW碰撞之前,M33在其第一个中心附近直接撞击MW的可能性为9%。另外,M33暂时或永久从本地组弹出的可能性为7%。 MW-M31合并残余物的径向质量分布比MW或M31的原始分布显着扩展,这表明合并残余物将类似于椭圆星系。太阳最有可能(〜85%的概率)以距MW-M31合并残余中心的半径大于当前距MW中心的距离结束,可能超过50 kpc(〜10%的概率)。在未来的10个Gyr中,太阳大约有20%的概率会发现自己移动通过M33(10 kpc以内),但仍然动态地绑定到MW-M31合并残留物。 M31(可能还有M33)与MW的到达和可能的碰撞是影响我们太阳和太阳系环境的下一个重大宇宙事件,可以肯定地预测到这一事件。

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