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The 11 Year Period in OJ 287 Revisited: Is It a True Long-Enduring Period?

机译:重新审视《 OJ 287》中的11年:这是一个真正的长期存在吗?

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The case of the possible 11 yr periodicity in the historical light curve of OJ 287 over a century of observations is examined critically largely independently of possible models that may explain it. Although it is evident that there is at least a quasiperiodicity in the light curve because of the regular spacing of the nine observed outbursts, attempts to estimate an exact period have been unconvincing. We show that the principal reason is that the data sampling is too uneven to permit definitive conclusions to be obtained from standard data analysis methods such as Fourier transform analysis. However, it is also shown that this is at least in part because the five most recent light-curve events do not refer to the same outburst in the light curve as the previous ones. A simple statistical method is defined to calculate a best period from both the primary and secondary outbursts. The result is a best mean period of 11.844 yr, although there is some evidence that the period for the primary maxima may be significantly longer than this value. While the periodic model of the light curve has so far demonstrated considerable predictive power, final judgement should be reserved until after this predicted maximum in 2006.
机译:在一个多世纪的观测中,OJ 287的历史光曲线中可能存在11年周期性的情况,在很大程度上独立于可能解释其的可能模型进行了严格的研究。尽管很明显,由于观察到的九个爆发点之间有规则的间隔,所以光曲线中至少存在准周期性,但估算确切周期的尝试却令人信服。我们表明,主要原因是数据采样太不均匀,以至于无法从标准数据分析方法(例如傅立叶变换分析)获得明确的结论。但是,这也表明至少这部分是因为最近的五个光曲线事件与光曲线中的爆发没有相同的爆发。定义了一种简单的统计方法,可以根据一次和二次爆发来计算最佳时期。尽管有一些证据表明初次最大值的时间可能明显长于该值,但结果是最佳平均时间为11.844年。尽管到目前为止,光曲线的周期模型已经显示出相当可观的预测能力,但应保留最终判断,直到2006年达到该预测最大值为止。

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