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首页> 外文期刊>The Astrophysical journal >Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. II. Discriminant Analysis
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Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. II. Discriminant Analysis

机译:耀斑与耀斑安静区域的光球磁场特性。二。判别分析

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We apply statistical tests based on discriminant analysis to the wide range of photospheric magnetic parameters described in a companion paper by Leka & Barnes, with the goal of identifying those properties that are important for the production of energetic events such as solar flares. The photospheric vector magnetic field data from the University of Hawai'i Imaging Vector Magnetograph are well sampled both temporally and spatially, and we include here data covering 24 flare-event and flare-quiet epochs taken from seven active regions. The mean value and rate of change of each magnetic parameter are treated as separate variables, thus evaluating both the parameter's state and its evolution, to determine which properties are associated with flaring. Considering single variables first, Hotelling's T2-tests show small statistical differences between flare-producing and flare-quiet epochs. Even pairs of variables considered simultaneously, which do show a statistical difference for a number of properties, have high error rates, implying a large degree of overlap of the samples. To better distinguish between flare-producing and flare-quiet populations, larger numbers of variables are simultaneously considered; lower error rates result, but no unique combination of variables is clearly the best discriminator. The sample size is too small to directly compare the predictive power of large numbers of variables simultaneously. Instead, we rank all possible four-variable permutations based on Hotelling's T2-test and look for the most frequently appearing variables in the best permutations, with the interpretation that they are most likely to be associated with flaring. These variables include an increasing kurtosis of the twist parameter and a larger standard deviation of the twist parameter, but a smaller standard deviation of the distribution of the horizontal shear angle and a horizontal field that has a smaller standard deviation but a larger kurtosis. To support the "sorting all permutations" method of selecting the most frequently occurring variables, we show that the results of a single 10-variable discriminant analysis are consistent with the ranking. We demonstrate that individually, the variables considered here have little ability to differentiate between flaring and flare-quiet populations, but with multivariable combinations, the populations may be distinguished.
机译:我们将基于判别分析的统计测试应用于Leka和Barnes随行论文中描述的广泛的光球磁参数,目的是确定那些对产生高能事件(例如太阳耀斑)很重要的特性。来自夏威夷大学成像矢量磁强仪的光球矢量磁场数据在时间和空间上都得到了很好的采样,我们在这里包括的数据涵盖了从七个活动区域采集的24个耀斑事件和耀斑安静时期。每个磁参数的平均值和变化率被视为单独的变量,从而评估参数的状态及其演变,以确定哪些属性与扩口有关。首先考虑单个变量,Hotelling的T2检验显示耀斑产生和耀斑安静时期之间的统计差异很小。即使同时考虑的成对变量(在某些属性上确实显示出统计差异)也具有较高的错误率,这意味着样本存在很大程度的重叠。为了更好地区分耀斑人群和耀斑人群,同时考虑了更多变量。降低错误率的结果,但是没有唯一的变量组合显然是最好的判别器。样本量太小,无法直接同时比较大量变量的预测能力。相反,我们基于Hotelling的T2检验对所有可能的四变量排列进行排序,并在最佳排列中查找出现频率最高的变量,并解释为它们最有可能与喇叭口相关。这些变量包括扭曲参数的峰度增加和扭曲参数的标准偏差较大,但是水平剪切角和具有标准偏差较小但峰度较大的水平场的分布的标准偏差较小。为了支持选择最频繁出现的变量的“对所有排列进行排序”的方法,我们显示了单个10变量判别分析的结果与排名一致。我们证明,单独考虑,这里考虑的变量几乎没有区分耀斑人群和耀斑人群的能力,但是使用多变量组合可以区分人群。

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