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Flight Delay Prediction Based on Characteristics of Aviation Network

机译:基于航空网络特征的航班延误预测

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In recent years, the increasingly serious flight delay affects the development of the civil aviation. It is meaningful to establish an effective model for predicating delay to help airlines take responsive measures. In this study, we collect three years’ operation data of a domestic airline company. To analyse the temporal pattern of the Aviation Network (AN), we obtain a time series of topological statistics through sliding the temporal AN with an hourly time window. In addition, we use K-means clustering algorithm to analyse the busy level of airports, which makes the airport property value more precise. Finally, we add delay property and use CHAID decision tree algorithm to train the data of an airline for nearly 3 years and use the train?ing model to predicate recent half a year delay. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the model is close to 80%.
机译:近年来,日益严重的航班延误影响了民航业的发展。建立有效的预测延误的模型以帮助航空公司采取响应措施是很有意义的。在这项研究中,我们收集了一家国内航空公司的三年运营数据。为了分析航空网络(AN)的时间模式,我们通过将时间AN滑动到每小时时间窗口来获得拓扑统计的时间序列。此外,我们使用K-means聚类算法来分析机场的繁忙程度,从而使机场资产价值更加精确。最后,我们增加了延误属性,并使用CHAID决策树算法训练了将近3年的航空公司数据,并使用训练模型预测了最近半年的延误。实验结果表明,该模型的准确性接近80%。

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