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Proposed probabilistic models of pipe failure in water distribution system

机译:供水系统中管道故障的建议概率模型

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摘要

All pipes in water supply network are installed underground, so it is difficult to identify pipe failure location during the operation of a system. Prediction of the risk of pipe failure in the water distribution systems is necessary for preparation of reparations and displacement of a pipe network system. Based on the probability of pipe failure, it will be possible to save money and labor cost for water supply companies. Many studies have been conducted on this topic, some of which used experimental models, others used statistical models in which recently many authors used regression model, but almost all the models come up with calculating the pipe failure rate per unit length of pipe in a year. It is not a direct probability of pipe failure. This article reviews various methods to evaluate pipe failure in water distribution systems. Based on that, the authors proposed two models: Regression Logistic Model and Decision Tree Model that would support an effective decision making for detecting the pipe failure and proposing appropriate solutions.
机译:供水网络中的所有管道都安装在地下,因此在系统运行期间很难确定管道故障的位置。预测配水系统中管道故障的风险对于准备管道网系统的修理和置换是必要的。根据管道故障的可能性,可以为供水公司节省金钱和人工成本。关于该主题已经进行了许多研究,其中一些使用实验模型,其他使用统计模型,最近许多作者使用回归模型,但是几乎所有模型都提出了计算一年中每单位管道长度的管道失效率的方法。 。这不是管道故障的直接可能性。本文回顾了评估配水系统中管道故障的各种方法。在此基础上,作者提出了两个模型:回归逻辑模型和决策树模型,它们将支持有效的决策,以检测管道故障并提出适当的解决方案。

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