Controlled information integration and bayesian inference

摘要

One of the oldest hypotheses in cognitive psychology is that controlled information integration1 is a serial, capacity-constrained process that is delimited by our working memory resources, and this seems to be the most uncontroversial aspect also of present-day dual-systems theories (Evans, 2008). The process is typically conceived of as a sequential adjustment of an estimate of a criterion (e.g., a probability), in view of successive consideration of inputs to the judgment (i.e., cues or evidence). The “cognitive default” seems to be to consider each attended cue in isolation, taking its impact on the criterion into account by adjusting a previous estimate into a new estimate, until a stopping rule applies (e.g., Juslin et al., 2008).