About accidents cyclicality and mathematical model of failure rate in main electrical grids of power systems

摘要

The accidents cyclicality of 500 kVoverhead lines of a large region over an extended time period was studied. Significant fluctuations in the values of their failure rate (failure frequency) under the impact of natural and socio-economic factors are revealed. The wavelet spectrums of the failure frequency were constructed, which revealed several historical periods of accidences. It is proposed to consider the failure rate as the output signal of a dynamic system with many difficultly formalized inputs. The stability of this dynamic system is evaluated. The ways of formalizing a multidimensional dynamic model of accidence in main electrical grids of power systems are outlined.