The forecasting of fuel demand is required for decision-making and management of heating systems. A simple methodology of gas demand forecasting in heating systems based on air-source gas-fired absorption heat pumps (GAHP) was presented and evaluated on real gas consumption data. The methodology was developed by Gazuno, based on experience and long-term measurements in real GAHP heating systems in Polish climate conditions. Methodology takes into account main factors influencing the gas consumption: the variability of heat pumps’ gas utilization efficiency (GUE), the operation conditions and the operation time. In air-source gas-fired heat pump technology the GUE changes in operation time according to the external air temperature and heating system temperature. The presented simple methodology is dedicated for decision-making on early design stage, to simple assessment of future gas demand in the GAHP heating systems.
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