Modelling the development of drilling operations in iron ore quarries (based on Kachkanar MPP)

摘要

The necessity of application of quantitative models of drilling operations development in iron ore quarries for the justified planning of drilling volumes and the relevant fleet of drilling rigs has been shown. For this purpose, experimental regression studies of the patterns of formation and development of drilling operations in the transition period of the modern market economy have been carried out using the example of the Kachkanar Mining and Processing Plant, which has typical characteristic features and dynamics of changes in mining production in Russia. Based on the analysis of the annual technical and economic indices of Kachkanar MPP, conclusions have been drawn about the characteristics of the depression period of drilling production in the 1990s and its subsequent growth, coupled with qualitative changes in the fleet of drilling rigs and productivity thereof. In order to establish the relevant quantitative relationships and development forecasts of the drilling operations at the plant, a nonlinear regression model for the distribution of the length of wells drilled per year has been created, depending on the calendar time, the number of drilling rigs and their utilization factor. The model has a high determination factor of 0.9. It is adequate to the errors of the initial indices, it is statistically reliable, and in this confidence interval, it expresses regularities in changes in the annual length of the drilled wells. According to the regularities, interpretation of transient processes and forecast estimates of the development of drilling operations have been provided.