From Immunogenicity to Vaccine Efficacy: Insights from Statistical and Causal Models

摘要

Background & Objectives: The identification of immunological surrogate markers of protection against disease plays a key role in the assessment of the efficacy of any vaccine. The sole identification of an appropriate surrogate marker is however not sufficient to provide an accurate prediction of vaccine efficacy. A statistical model providing a reliable estimation of the relationship between this marker and clinical protection is also required. We review analyses and models that explore this relationship in the case of influenza.