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Application of Zero-Inflated Poisson Mixed Models in Prognostic Factors of Hepatitis C

机译:零膨胀泊松混合模型在丙型肝炎预后因素中的应用

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Background and Objectives. In recent years, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection represents a major public health problem. Evaluation of risk factors is one of the solutions which help protect people from the infection. This study aims to employ zero-inflated Poisson mixed models to evaluate prognostic factors of hepatitis C.Methods. The data was collected from a longitudinal study during 2005–2010. First, mixed Poisson regression (PR) model was fitted to the data. Then, a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was fitted with compound Poisson random effects. For evaluating the performance of the proposed mixed model, standard errors of estimators were compared.Results. The results obtained from mixed PR showed that genotype 3 and treatment protocol were statistically significant. Results of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model showed that age, sex, genotypes 2 and 3, the treatment protocol, and having risk factors had significant effects on viral load of HCV patients. Of these two models, the estimators of zero-inflated Poisson mixed model had the minimum standard errors.Conclusions. The results showed that a mixed zero-inflated Poisson model was the almost best fit. The proposed model can capture serial dependence, additional overdispersion, and excess zeros in the longitudinal count data.
机译:背景和目标。近年来,丙型肝炎病毒(HCV)感染是主要的公共卫生问题。风险因素的评估是有助于保护人们免受感染的解决方案之一。本研究旨在采用零膨胀泊松混合模型评估丙型肝炎的预后因素。数据来自2005-2010年的纵向研究。首先,将混合泊松回归(PR)模型拟合到数据中。然后,混合零充气泊松模型拟合了复合泊松随机效应。为了评估所提出的混合模型的性能,比较了估计量的标准误差。从混合PR获得的结果表明,基因型3和治疗方案具有统计学意义。零膨胀的Poisson混合模型的结果显示,年龄,性别,基因型2和3,治疗方案以及具有危险因素对HCV患者的病毒载量有显着影响。在这两个模型中,零膨胀Poisson混合模型的估计量具有最小的标准误差。结果表明,混合零膨胀泊松模型几乎是最佳拟合。所提出的模型可以捕获纵向计数数据中的序列依赖性,额外的过度分散以及多余的零。

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