Prediction of the Extreme Wind Speed in the Mixed Climate by Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Measure-Correlate-Predict Method

摘要

The extreme wind speed at an offshore location is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) method. The Gumbel distribution can successfully express the annual maximum wind speed of extratropical cyclone. On the other hand, the analytical probability distribution underestimates annual maximum wind speed of tropical cyclone. In the mixed climate like Japan, the extreme wind speed estimated from the combined probability distribution obtained by MCP and MCS methods agrees well with the observed data as compared to the combined probability distribution obtained by the MCP Method only. The uncertainty of extreme wind speed due to limited observation period of wind speed and pressure is also evaluated by the Gumbel theory and Monte Carlo simulation. As a result, it is found that the uncertainty of 50-year recurrence wind speed obtained by MCS method is considerably smaller than that obtained by MCP method in the mixed climate.